The Counterfactual and Prefactual Thinking Scale (CAPS): A New Way of Measuring the Tendency to Reflect on Past and Future Events

Authors

• Clare Walsh, School of Psychology
• Alison Bacon, School of Psychology
• Jon May, UoP RU - Mental Imagery Research Group
• Lindsay Lenton, School of Psychology
• Miles Lott, School of Psychology

ORCID

• Clare Walsh: 0000-0002-5385-2325
• Alison Bacon: 0000-0003-4279-3814
• Jon May: 0000-0001-7439-9200

Abstract

Purpose Counterfactual thinking about how past events might have been different, and prefactual thinking about how things might be different in future, contribute to judgements, emotions and decisions, and can impact mood and wellbeing. We present a new objective psychometric measure, the Counterfactual and Prefactual thinking Scale (CAPS). The CAPS allows for the measurement of counterfactual and prefactual thinking tendency in terms of perceived controllability and the direc¬tion of outcome (upward thoughts of how things might be better and downward thoughts about how things might be worse). Methods In Study 1, we present the development of the CAPS. In Study 2, particpants (general public n = 200; students n = 182) completed the CAPS as part of an online survey to demonstrate its validity and reliability against established mea¬sures of emotions and coping. Results CAPS subscale scores explained variance in three well-documented correlates of counterfactual thinking, regret, depression and anxiety symptoms, and also in hope. Our counterfactual and prefactual subscales are associated with different emotions consistent with existing literature. Upward counterfactual thoughts are associated with negative moods whereas upward prefactuals are linked to positive moods. The reverse occurs for downward thoughts and the CAPS captures this pattern. Conclusions The CAPS presents a new way to assess the tendency to counterfactual and prefactual thoughts. These may contribute to coping through mood regulation. The CAPS has potential utility in addressing applied and theoretical research questions.

DOI Link

10.1007/s10608-026-10741-2

Publication Date

2026-05-29

Publication Title

Cognitive Therapy and Research

ISSN

0147-5916

Acceptance Date

2026-04-09

Deposit Date

2026-05-28

Embargo Period

2027-05-29

Keywords

counterfactual, counterfactual and prefactual thinking scale, CAPS, Coping, Prefactual

Recommended Citation

Walsh, C., Bacon, A., May, J., Lenton, L., & Lott, M. (2026) 'The Counterfactual and Prefactual Thinking Scale (CAPS): A New Way of Measuring the Tendency to Reflect on Past and Future Events', Cognitive Therapy and Research, . Available at: 10.1007/s10608-026-10741-2