A Decision-Making for Understanding Risk Propagation and Resilience Capabilities in AFSCs Based on Agrifood Transition: A Conceptual Framework

ORCID

Document Type

Conference Proceeding

Abstract

Driven by the combined influence of global climate change, geopolitical conflicts, and public health crises, the agrifood transition system is undergoing a profound transformation from traditional production and consumption patterns toward low-carbon, digitalized, and sustainable models. However, agrifood supply chains (AFSCs) face high levels of uncertainty during this transition, as risks often spread rapidly across different stages, triggering cascading effects and threatening food safety and supply chain stability. Although existing studies have examined risk factors and resilience in agrifood supply chains, there is still a lack of a systematic conceptual framework addressing risk propagation pathways and their relationships with resilience capabilities in the context of agrifood system transition. To fill this gap, the present study proposes a conceptual framework for investigating risk factors, characterizing risk propagation pathways, and resilience capabilities within agrifood transition systems. Starting with the identification of risks, risk propagation pathways, and resilience capabilities, the framework illustrates how risks are identified and propagated within AFSCs. Furthermore, it conceptualizes resilience capabilities across three dimensions, pre-shock, during shock and after shock, to explain how different capabilities mitigate risks, reduce their negative impacts, and support AFSCs during agrifood transition. The contribution of this study lies in developing a comprehensive framework that systematically links risks, their propagation pathways, and resilience capabilities used to mitigate these risks, thereby facilitating the sustainable transition of agrifood systems.

Publication Date

2026-04-28

Event

12th International Conference on Decision Support System Technology, ICDSST 2026

Publication Title

Decision Support Systems XVI. Decision Support System Technology for Sustainable and Resilient Transitions - 12th International Conference on Decision Support System Technology, ICDSST 2026, Proceedings

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH

ISBN

9783032251459

ISSN

1865-1348

Deposit Date

2026-08-11

Embargo Period

2027-04-28

Funding

This research is funded by the UKRI/BBSRC, under the RASCAL research project (Resilience in Agrifood System: Supply Chain Configuration Analytics Lab, grant award number BB/Z516703/1).

Keywords

Agrifood supply chain, Agrifood transition, resilience capabilities, risk factors, risk propagation

First Page

64

Last Page

81

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This item is under embargo until 28 April 2027

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