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dc.contributor.authorZhu, B
dc.contributor.authorCheng, Y
dc.contributor.authorHu, X
dc.contributor.authorChai, Y
dc.contributor.authorBerghuijs, WR
dc.contributor.authorBorthwick, AGL
dc.contributor.authorSlater, L
dc.date.accessioned2023-08-16T09:10:10Z
dc.date.available2023-08-16T09:10:10Z
dc.date.issued2023-07-14
dc.identifier.issn2397-3722
dc.identifier.issn2397-3722
dc.identifier.other91
dc.identifier.urihttps://pearl.plymouth.ac.uk/handle/10026.1/21235
dc.description.abstract

Over the tropical land surface, accurate estimates of future changes in temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration are crucial for ecological sustainability, but remain highly uncertain. Here we develop a series of emergent constraints (ECs) by using historical and future outputs from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth System Models under the four basic Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). Results show that the temperature sensitivity to precipitation during 2015–2100, which varies substantially in the original CMIP6 outputs, becomes systematically negative across SSPs after application of the EC, with absolute values between −1.10 °C mm−1 day and −3.52 °C mm−1 day, and with uncertainties reduced by 9.4% to 41.4%. The trend in tropical land-surface evapotranspiration, which was increasing by 0.292 mm yr−1 in the original CMIP6 model outputs, becomes significantly negative (−0.469 mm yr−1) after applying the constraint. Moreover, we find a significant increase of 58.7% in the leaf area index growth rate.

dc.format.extent91-
dc.languageen
dc.publisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLC
dc.subject37 Earth Sciences
dc.subject3701 Atmospheric Sciences
dc.subject15 Life on Land
dc.titleConstrained tropical land temperature-precipitation sensitivity reveals decreasing evapotranspiration and faster vegetation greening in CMIP6 projections
dc.typejournal-article
dc.typeArticle
plymouth.author-urlhttps://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:001028788500001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=11bb513d99f797142bcfeffcc58ea008
plymouth.issue1
plymouth.volume6
plymouth.publisher-urlhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00419-x
plymouth.publication-statusPublished online
plymouth.journalnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41612-023-00419-x
plymouth.organisational-group|Plymouth
plymouth.organisational-group|Plymouth|Faculty of Science and Engineering
plymouth.organisational-group|Plymouth|Faculty of Science and Engineering|School of Engineering, Computing and Mathematics
plymouth.organisational-group|Plymouth|Users by role
plymouth.organisational-group|Plymouth|Users by role|Academics
dcterms.dateAccepted2023-07-03
dc.date.updated2023-08-16T09:09:59Z
dc.rights.embargodate2023-8-25
dc.identifier.eissn2397-3722
dc.rights.embargoperiodforever
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1038/s41612-023-00419-x


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