What We Think Others Think and Do About Climate Change: A Multicountry Test of Pluralistic Ignorance and Public-Consensus Messaging

Authors

• Sandra J. Geiger, Environmental Psychology Unit, Department of Cognition, Emotion, and Methods in Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, Austria
• Jana K. Köhler, Environmental Psychology Unit, Department of Cognition, Emotion, and Methods in Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, Austria
• Zenith N. C. Delabrida, Department of Psychology, Federal University of Sergipe, Brazil
• Karla A. Garduño-Realivazquez, Department of Accounting, University of Sonora, Mexico
• Christian A. P. Haugestad, Department of Psychology, University of Oslo, Norway
• Hirotaka Imada, Research Institute for Future Design, Kochi University of Technology, Japan
• Aishwarya Iyer, Department of Psychology, Christ University, India
• Carya Maharja, School of Psychology
• Daniel C. Mann, Konrad Lorenz Institute of Ethology, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Austria
• Michalina Marczak, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland
• Olivia Melville, Department of Biology, University of Victoria, Canada
• Sari R. R. Nijssen, Environmental Psychology Unit, Department of Cognition, Emotion, and Methods in Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, Austria
• Nattavudh Powdthavee, Department of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
• Radisti A. Praptiwi, National Research and Innovation Agency Republic of Indonesia
• Gargi Ranade, The Shallow End Collective, Bangalore, India
• Claudio D. Rosa, Development and Environment, State University of Santa Cruz, Brazil
• Valeria Vitale, Department of Psychology of Developmental and Socialization Processes, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy
• Małgorzata Winkowska, Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, Sweden
• Lei Zhang, Centre for Human Brain Health, School of Psychology, University of Birmingham, United Kingdom
• Mathew P. White, Cognitive Science Hub, University of Vienna, Austria

ORCID

• Carya Maharja: 0000-0001-9581-8283

Abstract

Most people believe in human-caused climate change, yet this public consensus can be collectively underestimated (pluralistic ignorance). Across two studies using primary data (n = 3,653 adult participants; 11 countries) and secondary data (ns = 60,230 and 22,496 adult participants; 55 countries), we tested (a) the generalizability of pluralistic ignorance about climate-change beliefs, (b) the effects of a public-consensus intervention on climate action, and (c) the possibility that cultural tightness-looseness might serve as a country-level predictor of pluralistic ignorance. In Study 1, people across 11 countries underestimated the prevalence of proclimate views by at least 7.5% in Indonesia (90% credible interval, or CrI = [5.0, 10.1]), and up to 20.8% in Brazil (90% CrI = [18.2, 23.4]. Providing information about the actual public consensus on climate change was largely ineffective, except for a slight increase in willingness to express one’s proclimate opinion, δ = 0.05 (90% CrI = [−0.02, 0.11]). In Study 2, pluralistic ignorance about willingness to contribute financially to fight climate change was slightly more pronounced in looser than tighter cultures, highlighting the particular need for pluralistic-ignorance research in these countries.

DOI Link

10.1177/09567976251335585

Publication Date

2025-05-22

Publication Title

Psychological Science

Volume

36

Issue

6

ISSN

0956-7976

Acceptance Date

2025-01-01

Deposit Date

2025-05-24

Funding

Conflicts of interest: The authors declare no conflicts of interest. Funding: This research was supported by a preregistration grant from the Leibniz Institute for Psychology (ZPID), an early adopter grant from besample ( https://besample.app/ ), and an internal grant from the Doctoral School in Cognition, Behavior, and Neuroscience at the University of Vienna. Artificial intelligence: No artificial-intelligence-assisted technologies were used in this research or the creation of this article. Ethics: This research complies with the Declaration of Helsinki (2023), and Study 1 received approval from the ethics board at the University of Vienna (Project No. 00769 and Project No. 00843). Data collection was funded by the Leibniz Institute for Psychology (ZPID), an early adopter grant from besample ( https://besample.app/ ), and an internal grant from the Doctoral School in Cognition, Behavior, and Neuroscience (CoBeNe) at the University of Vienna. Open Access funding was provided by the University of Vienna. This research complies with the Declaration of Helsinki (2023), and Study 1 received approval from the ethics board at the University of Vienna (Project No. 00769 and Project No. 00843).

Keywords

climate change, cross-country generalizability, cultural tightness-looseness, pluralistic ignorance, social norm

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

First Page

421

Last Page

442

Recommended Citation

Geiger, S., Köhler, J., Delabrida, Z., Garduño-Realivazquez, K., Haugestad, C., Imada, H., Iyer, A., Maharja, C., Mann, D., Marczak, M., Melville, O., Nijssen, S., Powdthavee, N., Praptiwi, R., Ranade, G., Rosa, C., Vitale, V., Winkowska, M., Zhang, L., & White, M. (2025) 'What We Think Others Think and Do About Climate Change: A Multicountry Test of Pluralistic Ignorance and Public-Consensus Messaging', Psychological Science, 36(6), pp. 421-442. Available at: 10.1177/09567976251335585