ORCID

Abstract

There is a clear imperative to prevent youth crime and violence owing to the significant social and economic costs for individuals involved and wider society. A considerable evidence base for ‘what works’ in this space exists but gaps remain. To address these, it is necessary to evaluate intervention effectiveness. The aim of this article is to explore challenges and potential solutions regarding outcome measurement in such evaluations. To do this we draw on the literature and our experience as evaluators. We argue that outcome selection should be informed by a robust theory of change, and that normally this will mean focusing on non-crime/violence outcomes. We identify challenges with self-report measures of youth crime and violence, and consequent effects on participants’ engagement in the intervention and the quantity and quality of data they provide. We also discuss ways of using administrative data on crime and violence in evaluations and the practical, scientific and ethical issues these raise. While the challenges identified can partially be addressed, we conclude that currently evaluations of preventive interventions should mostly focus on intermediate outcomes with a known causal link to crime and violence. The longer-term impact on crime and violence can be tracked using administrative data accessed via an archive. We appreciate policymaker and funder pressure to quantify short-term intervention impact on crime and violence but contend that it is important not to force the issue. Meanwhile, it is essential to test the feasibility and acceptability of alternative approaches to measuring crime and violence in evaluations and to share the learning.

Publication Date

2026-07-01

Publication Title

Journal of Prevention

ISSN

2731-5533

Acceptance Date

2026-04-20

Deposit Date

2026-08-19

Funding

There was no specific funding for work on this manuscript. We are grateful to the Youth Endowment Fund and the Ending Youth Violence Lab for funding various pieces of work that informed our thinking on the issues discussed in this article, and to Daniel Acquah and Tom McBride for helpful comments on a draft of this article. Nick Axford’s time is supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Applied Research Collaboration South West. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Institute for Health and Care Research or the Department of Health and Social Care.

Keywords

Crime, Evaluation, Measurement, Outcomes, Violence, Youth

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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