Mapping the Numbers of Dementia in Brazil: A Delphi Consensus Study

Márlon Juliano Romero Aliberti, Hospital das Clinicas HCFMUSP
Claudia Kimie Suemoto, Hospital das Clinicas HCFMUSP
Jerson Laks, Instituto de Psiquiatria, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Paulo Caramelli, Behavioral and Cognitive Neurology Unit, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
Sonia Maria Dozzi Brucki, University of Sao Paulo Medical School
Nicolas Farina, Peninsula Medical School
Daniel Apolinario, Hospital das Clinicas HCFMUSP
Einstein Francisco Camargos, Programa de Pós-Graduação Em Ciências Médicas, Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Medicina, Brasília, Brazil.
Eleonora d'Orsi, Departamento de Saúde Pública, Centro de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, Brazil.
Gilberto Sousa Alves, Federal University of Maranhão
Karolina Gouveia César-Freitas, University of Sao Paulo Medical School
Luís Fernando Rangel, Hospital das Clinicas HCFMUSP
Márcia Lorena Fagundes Chaves, Departamento de Medicina Interna, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil.
Marcos Antonio Lopes, Departamento de Medicina Interna, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, Brazil.
Marcus Vinicius Della Coletta, Escola de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Manaus, Brazil.
Matheus Ghossain Barbosa, Department of Psychiatry, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Norberto Anizio Ferreira Frota, Department of Neurology, Universidade de Fortaleza (UNIFOR), Fortaleza, Brazil.
Ricardo Nitrini, University of Sao Paulo Medical School
Cleusa Pinheiro Ferri, Department of Psychiatry, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil.

ORCID

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: As the global dementia crisis intensifies, especially in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), there is a pressing need for comprehensive prevalence data across diverse regions, including Brazil, where studies have been predominantly limited to affluent urban centers. This study aimed to conduct an expert consensus to determine the prevalence of all-cause dementia in Brazil, considering various age groups, sexes, and geographical areas.

METHODS: A Delphi consensus process with clinical and academic experts from across Brazil was conducted to provide dementia prevalence estimates in people aged ≥ 60 years living throughout Brazil for 2019. Each round consisted of answering structured questionnaires that incorporated information from the literature. A priori criteria were used to ascertain the point in which consensus was achieved for > 70% of the 15 prevalence estimates-for (1) total, (2) women and men, and (3) the five Brazilian macro-regions. The current and projected dementia cases in Brazil were calculated based on age and sex population distributions.

RESULTS: Fifteen experts, with a mean professional experience of 25 ± 10 years, reached a consensus in the fourth round. Experts agreed with a mean all-cause dementia prevalence of 8.5% among Brazilians aged ≥ 60 years, which comprised 2.46 million people in 2019 in this age. They reported higher dementia rates in women (9.1%) than men (7.7%); the highest total prevalence was in those over 80 where it exceeds 20%. Regional variations were also noted, with lower prevalence in the South (7.3%) and higher in the North (8.9%) and Northeast (10.1%). Projections estimate that considering Brazil's rapidly aging population, dementia cases will rise to 8.89 million by 2060.

CONCLUSIONS: This Delphi study estimated that dementia already affects roughly 1 in 12 older Brazilians aged 60 and above, with slightly higher prevalence in women and significant geographical variations. These results underscore the urgency for targeted public health strategies in Brazil and offer a framework for similar challenges in other LMICs, especially given that dementia cases are projected to increase by approximately 3.6 times in 4 decades.

DOI

10.1002/gps.70055

Publication Date

2025-02-12

Publication Title

International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry

Volume

40

Issue

2

ISSN

0885-6230

Embargo Period

2026-02-12

Keywords

Humans, Brazil/epidemiology, Dementia/epidemiology, Male, Female, Delphi Technique, Aged, Middle Aged, Prevalence, Consensus, Aged, 80 and over, Sex Distribution, Surveys and Questionnaires, Age Distribution

First Page

70055

Last Page

70055

This document is currently not available here.

This item is under embargo until 12 February 2026

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