ORCID
- Pettinger, Clare: 0000-0001-7182-9463
Abstract
We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as “Possible (20–50%)”, “More likely than not (50–80%)” or “Very likely (>80%)” over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to 80% of experts. The experts considered two food system scenarios and ranked their plausibility of contributing to the given societal scenario. For a timescale of 10 years, the majority identified a food distribution problem as the most likely. Over a timescale of 50 years, the experts were more evenly split between the two scenarios, but over half thought the most likely route to civil unrest would be a lack of total food in the UK. However, the experts stressed that the various causes of food system disruption are interconnected and can create cascading risks, highlighting the importance of a systems approach. We encourage food system stakeholders to use these results in their risk planning and recommend future work to support prevention, preparedness, response and recovery planning.
DOI
10.3390/su152014783
Publication Date
2023-10-12
Publication Title
Sustainability
Volume
15
Issue
20
ISSN
1937-0709
Embargo Period
2023-10-13
Organisational Unit
School of Health Professions
Recommended Citation
Jones, A., Bridle, S., Denby, K., Bhunoo, R., Morton, D., Stanborough, L., Coupe, B., Pilley, V., Benton, T., Faloon, P., Matthews, T., & Pettinger, C. (2023) 'Scoping Potential Routes to UK Civil Unrest via the Food System: Results of a Structured Expert Elicitation', Sustainability, 15(20). Available at: https://doi.org/10.3390/su152014783
