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dc.contributor.authorEsquivel-Muelbert,
dc.contributor.authorBennett,
dc.contributor.authorSullivan,
dc.contributor.authorBaker,
dc.contributor.authorGavish,
dc.contributor.authorJohnson,
dc.contributor.authorWang,
dc.contributor.authorChambers-Ostler,
dc.contributor.authorGiannichi,
dc.contributor.authorGomes,
dc.contributor.authorKalamandeen,
dc.contributor.authorPattnayak,
dc.contributor.authorFauset,
dc.date.accessioned2019-11-26T15:23:51Z
dc.date.available2019-11-26T15:23:51Z
dc.date.issued2019-09-27
dc.identifier.issn0004-6973
dc.identifier.issn2073-4433
dc.identifier.otherARTN 588
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/15190
dc.description.abstract

<jats:p>Strong El Niño events alter tropical climates and may lead to a negative carbon balance in tropical forests and consequently a disruption to the global carbon cycle. The complexity of tropical forests and the lack of data from these regions hamper the assessment of the spatial distribution of El Niño impacts on these ecosystems. Typically, maps of climate anomaly are used to detect areas of greater risk, ignoring baseline climate conditions and forest cover. Here, we integrated climate anomalies from the 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016 El Niño events with baseline climate and forest edge extent, using a risk assessment approach to hypothetically assess the spatial and temporal distributions of El Niño risk over tropical forests under several risk scenarios. The drivers of risk varied temporally and spatially. Overall, the relative risk of El Niño has been increasing driven mainly by intensified forest fragmentation that has led to a greater chance of fire ignition and increased mean annual air temperatures. We identified areas of repeated high risk, where conservation efforts and fire control measures should be focused to avoid future forest degradation and negative impacts on the carbon cycle.</jats:p>

dc.format.extent588-588
dc.languageen
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherMDPI AG
dc.subjectcarbon cycle
dc.subjectphysiological thresholds
dc.subjectfire
dc.subjectforest fragmentation
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectclimate anomalies
dc.subjectdrought
dc.subjecttropical forests
dc.subjectbiogeography
dc.subjectEl Nino
dc.titleA Spatial and Temporal Risk Assessment of the Impacts of El Niño on the Tropical Forest Carbon Cycle: Theoretical Framework, Scenarios, and Implications
dc.typejournal-article
dc.typeArticle
plymouth.author-urlhttps://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000498267500026&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=11bb513d99f797142bcfeffcc58ea008
plymouth.issue10
plymouth.volume10
plymouth.publisher-urlhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos10100588
plymouth.publication-statusPublished online
plymouth.journalAtmosphere
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/atmos10100588
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/Faculty of Science and Engineering
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/Faculty of Science and Engineering/School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/REF 2021 Researchers by UoA
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/REF 2021 Researchers by UoA/UoA06 Agriculture, Veterinary and Food Science
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/Users by role
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/Users by role/Academics
dcterms.dateAccepted2019-09-24
dc.rights.embargodate2019-12-18
dc.identifier.eissn2073-4433
dc.rights.embargoperiodNot known
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.3390/atmos10100588
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2019-09-27
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Review


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