Improving the Representation of the Fragility of Coastal Structures
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© 2017 American Society of Civil Engineers. Information regarding the likelihood of structural failure of flood defences forms an essential part of any flood risk analysis (FRA). At present, when conducting FRA the probability of a defence failing is expressed conditionally upon a single variable either a hydraulic loading or a composite variable- A function of several hydraulic loading variables. A methodology has recently been proposed for simulating realistic sets of extreme nearshore sea conditions that comprises all of the hydraulic loading variables that can combine to produce an extreme sea state. By acting as the boundary conditions for a coastal FRA, the methodology has opened up the possibility of incorporating more detailed representations of the susceptibility of a coastal defence structure to failure into such analyses. It is anticipated that this more accurate description of a structure's likelihood of failure will ultimately lead to more accurate flood risk estimates. In this paper, the newly derived fragility representations are introduced before the difference/improvement in their description of a defence's susceptibility to failure is assessed by comparing the annual failure probabilities given by the new and existing representations.
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