ORCID
- Souran Chatterjee: 0000-0002-3500-6061
Abstract
The European Union's goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050, outlined in the European Green Deal, is supported by numerous studies providing insights into pathways and emission reduction strategies in the energy sectors. However, model comparisons of such pathways are less common due to the complex nature of climate and energy modelling. Our study brings together integrated assessment models and energy system models under a common framework to develop EU policy scenarios: a Current Trends scenario reflecting existing policies and trends and a Climate Neutrality scenario aligned with the EU's emission reduction target. Both scenarios project reduced final energy consumption by 2050, driven by increased electrification and decreased fossil fuel usage. Electricity consumption increases driven by electrification despite the improved efficiency of electrified technologies. Models align on a shift toward renewables but diverge in technology and fuel choices, reflecting various approaches to reach net-zero energy systems. Furthermore, trade-offs between energy demand and supply mitigation strategies, as well as between renewable energy, e-fuels, and CCS technologies are identified. Considering these model variations, our study highlights the importance of consistent model comparison to offer reliable recommendations to policymakers and stakeholders. We conclude that model diversity is a valuable asset when used sensibly.
DOI Link
DOI
10.1016/j.energy.2025.134809
Publication Date
2025-02-06
Publication Title
Energy
Volume
319
ISSN
0360-5442
Keywords
CO2 net neutrality, Current trends pathways, Decarbonization pathways, Energy system models, European green deal, Integrated assessment models, Muti-model comparison
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Recommended Citation
Mikropoulos, E., Roelfsema, M., Chen, H., Staffell, I., Oreggioni, G., Hdidouan, D., Thellufsen, J., Chang, M., Fragkos, P., Giannousakis, A., Chatterjee, S., Ürge-Vorsatz, D., Pfenninger, S., Pickering, B., Victoria, M., Brown, T., & van Vuuren, D. (2025) 'Examining pathways for a climate neutral Europe by 2050; A model comparison analysis including integrated assessment models and energy system models', Energy, 319. Available at: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.134809
