Abstract
Under climate change, model ensembles suggest that declines in phytoplankton biomass amplify into greater reductions at higher trophic levels, with serious implications for fisheries and carbon storage. However, the extent and mechanisms of this trophic amplification vary greatly among models, and validation is problematic. In situ size spectra offer a novel alternative, comparing biomass of small and larger organisms to quantify the net efficiency of energy transfer through natural food webs that are already challenged with multiple climate change stressors. Our global compilation of pelagic size spectrum slopes supports trophic amplification empirically, independently from model simulations. Thus, even a modest (16%) decline in phytoplankton this century would magnify into a 38% decline in supportable biomass of fish within the intensively-fished mid-latitude ocean. We also show that this amplification stems not from thermal controls on consumers, but mainly from temperature or nutrient controls that structure the phytoplankton baseline of the food web. The lack of evidence for direct thermal effects on size structure contrasts with most current thinking, based often on more acute stress experiments or shorter-timescale responses. Our synthesis of size spectra integrates these short-term dynamics, revealing the net efficiency of food webs acclimating and adapting to climatic stressors.
DOI
10.1038/s41467-023-44406-5
Publication Date
2024-01-09
Publication Title
Nature Communications
Volume
15
Issue
1
ISSN
2041-1723
Recommended Citation
Atkinson, A., Rossberg, A., Gaedke, U., Sprules, G., Heneghan, R., Batziakas, S., Grigoratou, M., Fileman, E., Schmidt, K., & Frangoulis, C. (2024) 'Steeper size spectra with decreasing phytoplankton biomass indicate strong trophic amplification and future fish declines', Nature Communications, 15(1). Available at: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44406-5
