Abstract

The Lemur leaf frog (Agalychnis lemur) is a critically endangered species of anuran whose survival is increasingly threatened by human-induced environmental stressors, such as habitat loss, fragmentation, and climate change. This study investigates how those stressors shape the physiology, distribution, and behaviour of the species through combinations of physiological and distributional modelling and a behavioural trial. The study uses a novel approach into understanding how future risk posed by climate change could impact Lemur leaf frogs. By using field spatial data combined with physiological mechanistic modelling, the study is able to predict how Lemur leaf frogs body temperature and geographical range could change by 2100. The distributional modelling component explored the species’ future habitat and distribution by 2100 under three climate pathways. The model was parameterised by using future climate prediction. Results indicated a potential increase in suitable habitats by the end of the century. Habitat suitability was highest in regions with stable, warm temperatures (28-29°C) and high but evenly distributed precipitation (monthly average of 358.33mm). The physiological aspect of this study offers a crucial assessment of how land use, not captured in MaxEnt models, may impact the species by manipulating canopy cover to capture pristine and edge habitats. Modelling local climate in a current population with, future predicted air temperature and precipitation levels, this study shows how frogs inhabiting microhabitats with less canopy cover experience significantly higher body temperatures compared to denser canopy levels, pushing them further from their minimum critical temperature toward their preferred thermal range. This shift could support range expansion as the climate becomes more suitable, though caution is needed regarding proximity to temperatures where activity costs may arise. In the behavioural trial, the introduction of a new plant into the species habitat resulted in reduced activity levels, avoidance of the modified area, and lasting changes in spatial preference for nocturnal activity even after the plant’s removal. Despite these shifts, some established diurnal refuge choice remained consistent, suggesting a degree of behavioural resilience. Overall, this study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of how Lemur leaf frogs will react to different types of habitats and hopes to contribute to a broader understanding of amphibian behavioural ecology and explores the idea of combining physiological and distributional modelling outputs to gain a better understanding on how Lemur leaf frogs may experience the world by 2100.

Awarding Institution(s)

University of Plymouth

Supervisor

Katherine Herborn, Robert Puschendorf

Keywords

Biology, Distribution, Physiology, Behaviour, Lemur leaf frog, Lemur leaf frogs, Frogs, Amphibian

Document Type

Thesis

Publication Date

2025

Embargo Period

2025-09-17

Deposit Date

September 2025

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

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