Abstract
The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.
DOI
10.1126/science.aaw7578
Publication Date
2020-05-22
Publication Title
Science
Volume
368
Issue
6493
ISSN
0036-8075
Embargo Period
2020-06-03
First Page
869
Last Page
874
Recommended Citation
Sullivan, M., Lewis, S., Affum-Baffoe, K., Castilho, C., Costa, F., Sanchez, A., Ewango, C., Hubau, W., Marimon, B., Monteagudo-Mendoza, A., Qie, L., Sonké, B., Martinez, R., Baker, T., Brienen, R., Feldpausch, T., Galbraith, D., Gloor, M., Malhi, Y., Aiba, S., Alexiades, M., Almeida, E., de, O., Dávila, E., Loayza, P., Andrade, A., Vieira, S., Aragão, L., Araujo-Murakami, A., & Arets, E. (2020) 'Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests', Science, 368(6493), pp. 869-874. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578
