ORCID
- Julian Stander: 0000-0002-1429-9862
Abstract
We review our 2016 Bayesian survival analysis model prediction of the post-election survival time of Pope Francis, finding it to be accurate. We present a Lexis diagram showing the post-election survival times of popes from 1404. We use our model to make post-election survival time predictions for hypothetical popes aged 50, 60, 70 and 80 years. In the light of the election of Cardinal Prevost on 8th May 2025, we predict the post-election survival time of Pope Leo XIV. The advantage of our approach is that it yields the full survival time distribution, rather than just a point estimate.
Publication Date
2025-05-07
Recommended Citation
Stander, J., & Cortina-Borja, M. (2025) 'Statistically speaking...How long can the next Pope expect to live?', Retrieved from https://pearl.plymouth.ac.uk/secam-research/2124
