Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia
dc.contributor.author | Chai, Y | |
dc.contributor.author | Yue, Y | |
dc.contributor.author | Slater, LJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Yin, J | |
dc.contributor.author | Borthwick, Alistair | |
dc.contributor.author | Chen, T | |
dc.contributor.author | Wang, G | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-07-28T13:50:02Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2022-07-15 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 2041-1723 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 2041-1723 | |
dc.identifier.other | 4124 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/19448 | |
dc.description.abstract |
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Climate projections are essential for decision-making but contain non-negligible uncertainty. To reduce projection uncertainty over Asia, where half the world’s population resides, we develop emergent constraint relationships between simulated temperature (1970–2014) and precipitation (2015–2100) growth rates using 27 CMIP6 models under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Here we show that, with uncertainty successfully narrowed by 12.1–31.0%, constrained future precipitation growth rates are 0.39 ± 0.18 mm year<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> (29.36 mm °C<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup>, SSP126), 0.70 ± 0.22 mm year<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> (20.03 mm °C<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup>, SSP245), 1.10 ± 0.33 mm year<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> (17.96 mm °C<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup>, SSP370) and 1.42 ± 0.35 mm year<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> (17.28 mm °C<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup>, SSP585), indicating overestimates of 6.0–14.0% by the raw CMIP6 models. Accordingly, future temperature and total evaporation growth rates are also overestimated by 3.4–11.6% and −2.1–13.0%, respectively. The slower warming implies a lower snow cover loss rate by 10.5–40.2%. Overall, we find the projected increase in future water availability is overestimated by CMIP6 over Asia.</jats:p> | |
dc.format.extent | 4124- | |
dc.format.medium | Electronic | |
dc.language | en | |
dc.language.iso | eng | |
dc.publisher | Nature Research | |
dc.subject | Asia | |
dc.subject | Climate | |
dc.subject | Climate Change | |
dc.subject | Models, Theoretical | |
dc.subject | Water | |
dc.title | Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia | |
dc.type | journal-article | |
dc.type | Journal Article | |
dc.type | Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't | |
plymouth.author-url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35840591 | |
plymouth.issue | 1 | |
plymouth.volume | 13 | |
plymouth.publication-status | Published online | |
plymouth.journal | Nature Communications | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1038/s41467-022-31782-7 | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth/Faculty of Science and Engineering | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth/Faculty of Science and Engineering/School of Engineering, Computing and Mathematics | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth/Users by role | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth/Users by role/Academics | |
dc.publisher.place | England | |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2022-07-01 | |
dc.rights.embargodate | 2022-7-29 | |
dc.identifier.eissn | 2041-1723 | |
dc.rights.embargoperiod | Not known | |
rioxxterms.funder | Natural Environment Research Council | |
rioxxterms.identifier.project | GCRF Urban Disaster Risk Hub | |
rioxxterms.versionofrecord | 10.1038/s41467-022-31782-7 | |
rioxxterms.licenseref.uri | http://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved | |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2022-07-15 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | |
plymouth.funder | GCRF Urban Disaster Risk Hub::Natural Environment Research Council |