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dc.contributor.authorChai, Y
dc.contributor.authorYue, Y
dc.contributor.authorSlater, LJ
dc.contributor.authorYin, J
dc.contributor.authorBorthwick, Alistair
dc.contributor.authorChen, T
dc.contributor.authorWang, G
dc.date.accessioned2022-07-28T13:50:02Z
dc.date.issued2022-07-15
dc.identifier.issn2041-1723
dc.identifier.issn2041-1723
dc.identifier.other4124
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/19448
dc.description.abstract

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Climate projections are essential for decision-making but contain non-negligible uncertainty. To reduce projection uncertainty over Asia, where half the world’s population resides, we develop emergent constraint relationships between simulated temperature (1970–2014) and precipitation (2015–2100) growth rates using 27 CMIP6 models under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Here we show that, with uncertainty successfully narrowed by 12.1–31.0%, constrained future precipitation growth rates are 0.39 ± 0.18 mm year<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> (29.36 mm °C<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup>, SSP126), 0.70 ± 0.22 mm year<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> (20.03 mm °C<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup>, SSP245), 1.10 ± 0.33 mm year<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> (17.96 mm °C<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup>, SSP370) and 1.42 ± 0.35 mm year<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> (17.28 mm °C<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup>, SSP585), indicating overestimates of 6.0–14.0% by the raw CMIP6 models. Accordingly, future temperature and total evaporation growth rates are also overestimated by 3.4–11.6% and −2.1–13.0%, respectively. The slower warming implies a lower snow cover loss rate by 10.5–40.2%. Overall, we find the projected increase in future water availability is overestimated by CMIP6 over Asia.</jats:p>

dc.format.extent4124-
dc.format.mediumElectronic
dc.languageen
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherNature Research
dc.subjectAsia
dc.subjectClimate
dc.subjectClimate Change
dc.subjectModels, Theoretical
dc.subjectWater
dc.titleConstrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia
dc.typejournal-article
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.typeResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
plymouth.author-urlhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35840591
plymouth.issue1
plymouth.volume13
plymouth.publication-statusPublished online
plymouth.journalNature Communications
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41467-022-31782-7
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/Faculty of Science and Engineering
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/Faculty of Science and Engineering/School of Engineering, Computing and Mathematics
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/Users by role
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/Users by role/Academics
dc.publisher.placeEngland
dcterms.dateAccepted2022-07-01
dc.rights.embargodate2022-7-29
dc.identifier.eissn2041-1723
dc.rights.embargoperiodNot known
rioxxterms.funderNatural Environment Research Council
rioxxterms.identifier.projectGCRF Urban Disaster Risk Hub
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1038/s41467-022-31782-7
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2022-07-15
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Review
plymouth.funderGCRF Urban Disaster Risk Hub::Natural Environment Research Council


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