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dc.contributor.authorJoseph, EP
dc.contributor.authorCamejo-Harry, M
dc.contributor.authorChristopher, T
dc.contributor.authorContreras-Arratia, R
dc.contributor.authorEdwards, S
dc.contributor.authorGraham, O
dc.contributor.authorJohnson, M
dc.contributor.authorJuman, A
dc.contributor.authorLatchman, JL
dc.contributor.authorLynch, L
dc.contributor.authorMiller, VL
dc.contributor.authorPapadopoulos, I
dc.contributor.authorPascal, K
dc.contributor.authorRobertson, R
dc.contributor.authorRyan, GA
dc.contributor.authorStinton, A
dc.contributor.authorGrandin, R
dc.contributor.authorHamling, I
dc.contributor.authorJo, M-J
dc.contributor.authorBarclay, J
dc.contributor.authorCole, Paul
dc.contributor.authorDavies, BV
dc.contributor.authorSparks, RSJ
dc.date.accessioned2022-07-26T15:00:07Z
dc.date.issued2022-12
dc.identifier.issn2041-1723
dc.identifier.issn2041-1723
dc.identifier.other4129
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/19440
dc.description.abstract

Abstract: A critical challenge during volcanic emergencies is responding to rapid changes in eruptive behaviour. Actionable advice, essential in times of rising uncertainty, demands the rapid synthesis and communication of multiple datasets with prognoses. The 2020–2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano exemplifies these challenges: a series of explosions from 9–22 April 2021 was preceded by three months of effusive activity, which commenced with a remarkably low level of detected unrest. Here we show how the development of an evolving conceptual model, and the expression of uncertainties via both elicitation and scenarios associated with this model, were key to anticipating this transition. This not only required input from multiple monitoring datasets but contextualisation via state-of-the-art hazard assessments, and evidence-based knowledge of critical decision-making timescales and community needs. In addition, we share strategies employed as a consequence of constraints on recognising and responding to eruptive transitions in a resource-constrained setting, which may guide similarly challenged volcano observatories worldwide.

dc.format.extent4129-
dc.format.mediumElectronic
dc.languageen
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLC
dc.subjectDisasters
dc.subjectVolcanic Eruptions
dc.titleResponding to eruptive transitions during the 2020–2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano, St. Vincent
dc.typejournal-article
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.typeResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
plymouth.author-urlhttps://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000826101400015&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=11bb513d99f797142bcfeffcc58ea008
plymouth.issue1
plymouth.volume13
plymouth.publication-statusPublished online
plymouth.journalNature Communications
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41467-022-31901-4
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/Faculty of Science and Engineering
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/Faculty of Science and Engineering/School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/REF 2021 Researchers by UoA
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/REF 2021 Researchers by UoA/UoA07 Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/Users by role
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/Users by role/Academics
dc.publisher.placeEngland
dcterms.dateAccepted2022-07-08
dc.rights.embargodate2022-7-27
dc.identifier.eissn2041-1723
dc.rights.embargoperiodNot known
rioxxterms.funderNatural Environment Research Council
rioxxterms.identifier.projectLa Soufriere 2021: recharge, remobilisation or complete renewal of a magmatic system
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1038/s41467-022-31901-4
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2022-07-15
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Review
plymouth.funderLa Soufriere 2021: recharge, remobilisation or complete renewal of a magmatic system::Natural Environment Research Council


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