Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorPrestige, E.
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-24T17:41:25Z
dc.date.available2021-12-24T17:41:25Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.identifier.citation

Prestige, E. (2021) 'What effect do government policies have on the transmission of COVID-19?', The Plymouth Student Scientist, 14(2), pp. 356-428.

en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/18509
dc.description.abstract

This investigation aimed to determine the effect of government policies on the transmission of COVID-19 during the period 30/01/2020 – 03/01/2021. This investigation used qualitative data from policy legislation and journals and quantitative data from official government pandemic figures. It also used central factors of successful government approaches to assess the efficacy of the UK Government strategy. The measure used to monitor transmission rates is the instantaneous reproduction number Rt. I have used summary statistics, data visualisation, and time series representations to conduct exploratory data analyses. I also investigated the change in testing capacity and positivity rate over time to account for factors impacting the number of individuals testing positive for COVID-19. To estimate Rt, I used a deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Removed model and a stochastic epidemic model. I then used time series models to predict the positivity rate, transmission rate, and the number of new cases for the following week. From estimating Rt, we see that the rate of transmission fell during national lockdowns. Predictions showed that the positivity rate, transmission rate, and the number of new cases would increase if conditions had remained the same, i.e. if the government had not implemented additional mitigation strategies. Lastly, I compared the approaches taken in the UK with those in New Zealand and Brazil. From this, I was able to identify the possible influence of government policies on transmission. This investigation found that when governments communicated policies clearly, they had a more notable effect on reducing Rt. Furthermore, I have identified several areas in which the government could have improved to increase the effectiveness of policies on reducing transmission rates.

en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherUniversity of Plymouthen_US
dc.rightsAttribution 3.0 United States*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/us/*
dc.subjectmathematicsen_US
dc.subjectstatisticsen_US
dc.subjectequationsen_US
dc.subjectCOVID-19en_US
dc.subjecttransmissionen_US
dc.titleWhat effect do government policies have on the transmission of COVID-19?en_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
plymouth.issue2
plymouth.volume14
plymouth.journalThe Plymouth Student Scientist


Files in this item

Thumbnail
Thumbnail
Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Attribution 3.0 United States
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution 3.0 United States

All items in PEARL are protected by copyright law.
Author manuscripts deposited to comply with open access mandates are made available in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite only the published version using the details provided on the item record or document. In the absence of an open licence (e.g. Creative Commons), permissions for further reuse of content should be sought from the publisher or author.
Theme by 
@mire NV