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dc.contributor.authorNuismer, SL
dc.contributor.authorRemien, CH
dc.contributor.authorBasinski, AJ
dc.contributor.authorVarrelman, T
dc.contributor.authorLayman, N
dc.contributor.authorRosenke, K
dc.contributor.authorBird, B
dc.contributor.authorJarvis, Michael A
dc.contributor.authorBarry, P
dc.contributor.authorHanley, PW
dc.contributor.authorFichet-Calvet, E
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-17T21:34:50Z
dc.date.issued2020-09-21
dc.identifier.issn1935-2727
dc.identifier.issn1935-2735
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/16660
dc.description.abstract

Lassa virus is a significant burden on human health throughout its endemic region in West Africa, with most human infections the result of spillover from the primary rodent reservoir of the virus, the natal multimammate mouse, M. natalensis. Here we develop a Bayesian methodology for estimating epidemiological parameters of Lassa virus within its rodent reservoir and for generating probabilistic predictions for the efficacy of rodent vaccination programs. Our approach uses Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to integrate mechanistic mathematical models, remotely-sensed precipitation data, and Lassa virus surveillance data from rodent populations. Using simulated data, we show that our method accurately estimates key model parameters, even when surveillance data are available from only a relatively small number of points in space and time. Applying our method to previously published data from two villages in Guinea estimates the time-averaged R0 of Lassa virus to be 1.74 and 1.54 for rodent populations in the villages of Bantou and Tanganya, respectively. Using the posterior distribution for model parameters derived from these Guinean populations, we evaluate the likely efficacy of vaccination programs relying on distribution of vaccine-laced baits. Our results demonstrate that effective and durable reductions in the risk of Lassa virus spillover into the human population will require repeated distribution of large quantities of vaccine.

dc.format.extente0007920-e0007920
dc.format.mediumElectronic-eCollection
dc.languageen
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherPublic Library of Science (PLoS)
dc.subjectAnimals
dc.subjectBayes Theorem
dc.subjectComputer Simulation
dc.subjectDisease Reservoirs
dc.subjectGuinea
dc.subjectLassa Fever
dc.subjectLassa virus
dc.subjectModels, Theoretical
dc.subjectMurinae
dc.subjectRodent Diseases
dc.subjectVaccination
dc.subjectZoonoses
dc.titleBayesian estimation of Lassa virus epidemiological parameters: Implications for spillover prevention using wildlife vaccination
dc.typejournal-article
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.typeResearch Support, N.I.H., Extramural
dc.typeResearch Support, N.I.H., Intramural
dc.typeResearch Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
plymouth.author-urlhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32956349
plymouth.issue9
plymouth.volume14
plymouth.publication-statusPublished online
plymouth.journalPLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pntd.0007920
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/Faculty of Health
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/Faculty of Health/School of Biomedical Sciences
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/REF 2021 Researchers by UoA
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/REF 2021 Researchers by UoA/UoA01 Clinical Medicine
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/Research Groups
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/Research Groups/Institute of Translational and Stratified Medicine (ITSMED)
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/Research Groups/Institute of Translational and Stratified Medicine (ITSMED)/CBR
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/Users by role
plymouth.organisational-group/Plymouth/Users by role/Academics
dc.publisher.placeUnited States
dcterms.dateAccepted2020-07-20
dc.rights.embargodate2020-11-19
dc.identifier.eissn1935-2735
dc.rights.embargoperiodNot known
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1371/journal.pntd.0007920
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2020-09-21
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Review


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