Exploring the Potential for Multivariate Fragility Representations to Alter Flood Risk Estimates
dc.contributor.author | Dalla Valle, Luciana | |
dc.contributor.author | Jane, R | |
dc.contributor.author | Simmonds, David | |
dc.contributor.author | Gouldby, B | |
dc.contributor.author | Simm, J | |
dc.contributor.author | Raby, Alison | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2018-08-31T13:37:37Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2018-06-20 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0272-4332 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1539-6924 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/12214 | |
dc.description.abstract |
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>In flood risk analysis, limitations in the multivariate statistical models adopted to model the hydraulic load have restricted the probability of a defense suffering structural failure to be expressed conditionally on a single hydraulic loading variable. This is an issue at the coastal level where multiple loadings act on defenses with the exact combination of loadings dictating their failure probabilities. Recently, a methodology containing a multivariate statistical model with the flexibility to robustly capture the dependence structure between the individual loadings was used to derive extreme nearshore loading conditions. Its adoption will permit the incorporation of more precise representations of a structure's vulnerability in future analyses. In this article, a fragility representation of a shingle beach, where the failure probability is expressed over a three‐dimensional loading parameter space—water level, wave height, and period—is derived at two localities. Within the approach, a Gaussian copula is used to capture any dependencies between the simplified geometric parameters of a beach's shape. Beach profiles are simulated from the copula and the failure probability, given the hydraulic load, determined by the reformulated Bradbury barrier inertia parameter model. At one site, substantial differences in the annual failure probability distribution are observed between the new and existing approaches. At the other, the beach only becomes vulnerable after a significant reduction of the crest height with its mean annual failure probability close to that presently predicted. It is concluded that further application of multivariate approaches is likely to yield more effective flood risk management.</jats:p> | |
dc.format.extent | 1847-1870 | |
dc.format.medium | Print-Electronic | |
dc.language | en | |
dc.language.iso | en | |
dc.publisher | Wiley | |
dc.subject | Copula | |
dc.subject | flood risk analysis | |
dc.subject | fragility | |
dc.subject | multidimensional fragility | |
dc.title | Exploring the Potential for Multivariate Fragility Representations to Alter Flood Risk Estimates | |
dc.type | journal-article | |
dc.type | Journal Article | |
dc.type | Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't | |
plymouth.author-url | https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000444965400009&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=11bb513d99f797142bcfeffcc58ea008 | |
plymouth.issue | 9 | |
plymouth.volume | 38 | |
plymouth.publication-status | Published | |
plymouth.journal | Risk Analysis | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1111/risa.13007 | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth/Admin Group - REF | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth/Admin Group - REF/REF Admin Group - FoSE | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth/Faculty of Science and Engineering | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth/Faculty of Science and Engineering/School of Engineering, Computing and Mathematics | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth/PRIMaRE Publications | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth/REF 2021 Researchers by UoA | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth/REF 2021 Researchers by UoA/EXTENDED UoA 10 - Mathematical Sciences | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth/REF 2021 Researchers by UoA/UoA10 Mathematical Sciences | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth/REF 2021 Researchers by UoA/UoA12 Engineering | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth/Research Groups | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth/Research Groups/Marine Institute | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth/Users by role | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth/Users by role/Academics | |
plymouth.organisational-group | /Plymouth/Users by role/Researchers in ResearchFish submission | |
dc.publisher.place | United States | |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2018-04-04 | |
dc.rights.embargodate | 2019-1-11 | |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1539-6924 | |
dc.rights.embargoperiod | Not known | |
rioxxterms.versionofrecord | 10.1111/risa.13007 | |
rioxxterms.licenseref.uri | http://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved | |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2018-06-20 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review |