ORCID

Abstract

Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their 'transferability') undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions

DOI

10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001

Publication Date

2018-01-01

Publication Title

Trends in Ecology and Evolution

Volume

33

Issue

10

First Page

790

Last Page

802

ISSN

0169-5347

Embargo Period

2021-10-20

Organisational Unit

School of Biological and Marine Sciences

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